⚡ This Week’s Pipeline Events
The first full week of November brings four high-impact catalysts spanning rare disease, nephrology, cardiology, and oncology. Conference overlap (ASN + SITC) is driving heavy data flow and short-term rotation across mid-caps.
High Confidence >70% 🟢 Moderate 40–70% 🟡 Speculative <40% 🔴
(Full numeric tally returns next issue.)
✅ Featured Catalysts This Week (Nov 4 – Nov 10)
Key events and near-term setups attracting market attention
Deucrictibant — Pharvaris $PHVS ( ▼ 0.96% )
Catalyst Date: Nov 6
Event: Dual Phase 3 readouts (ACAAI)
PoA: 70%
Oral B2-bradykinin antagonist for HAE and AAE-C1INH. If data confirm durable attack-rate reduction with clean safety, it pressures injectables and challenges BioCryst’s ORLADEYO®. Expect immediate cross-read as $BCRX presents its pediatric update.
Atacicept — Vera Therapeutics $VERA ( ▼ 4.08% )
Catalyst Date: Nov 6
Event: ORIGIN Phase 3 plenary (ASN Kidney Week)
PoA: 70%
BAFF/APRIL dual inhibitor for IgA Nephropathy. Proteinuria reduction (–46%) met the primary endpoint; missing eGFR slope data keeps regulatory risk in view and amplifies comparison with Vor Biopharma’s Telitacicept. Short interest (~21% float) remains elevated into the event.
Etripamil (CARDAMYST™) — Milestone Pharmaceuticals $MIST ( ▼ 0.58% )
Catalyst Date: Dec 13 2025 (PDUFA)
Event: NDA resubmission following CRL; action date set.
First self-administered nasal calcium-channel blocker for paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia. If approved with a broad label and clean use instructions, it opens an at-home acute treatment niche previously limited to ER intervention. Label scope and payer alignment will dictate commercial uptake.
CAN-2409 — Candel Therapeutics $CADL ( ▲ 2.02% )
Catalyst Date: Nov 7 (SITC)
Event: Late-stage oncology data presentation
PoA: 80%
A gene-mediated immunotherapy for solid tumors (NSCLC and prostate lead programs). Strong efficacy signal would validate the in-situ vaccine platform and re-rate $CADL as a combination partner across oncology.
📅 Other Notable Readouts
• Vafseo (vadadustat) — $AKBA ( ▲ 1.49% ) : INNO2VATE win-odds analysis (post-approval dialysis setting); commercial read-through > regulatory. PoA 100%.
• Obicetrapib — $NAMS ( ▼ 0.78% ) : Phase 3 readout Nov 9; CETP class finale with high expectations. PoA 65%.
• Denifanstat — $SGMT ( ▼ 2.21% ) : Phase 2b MASH data Nov 7; FASN angle interesting but biopsy strength modest. PoA 50%.
➡️ Looking Ahead
• Belapectin — $GALT ( ▼ 6.81% ) Nov 10: Phase 2b/3 MASH cirrhosis readout (AASLD); binary for galectin-3 mechanism.
• Repatha — $AMGN ( ▲ 1.46% ) Nov 8: Full VESALIUS-CV results (AHA); first PCSK9 showing MACE reduction in primary prevention.
• Rybelsus (oral semaglutide) — $NVO ( ▼ 1.79% ) : Approved Oct 2025 for MACE risk reduction (SOUL). The GLP-1 halo continues to pressure cardio-renal peers without outcomes data.
📈 Market Context
Sector Rotation: Cardio leadership $CYTK ( ▼ 0.23% ) $AMGN ( ▲ 1.46% ) continues to draw flows from renal names. Validated mechanisms are being rewarded; cash-tight micro-caps remain financing-sensitive into year-end.
HAE Duopoly: $PHVS ( ▼ 0.96% ) owns the adult efficacy story; $BCRX ( ▲ 0.85% ) defends pediatrics. This week’s data sequencing shapes the 2026 market-share narrative.
IgAN Crossfire: First credible eGFR trend post-ASN will set the valuation ceiling for BAFF/APRIL programs.
💡 “PoA” (Probability of Approval)
A heuristic estimate of regulatory success based on phase, data quality, and precedent. Updated weekly as new data emerge.
⚠️ Disclaimer
All estimates are derived from public data. Not investment advice. Verify with FDA and company filings.
Editor’s note: Etripamil timing corrected to Dec 13 2025 (PDUFA) and Rybelsus CV approval reflected as October 2025.