📊 This Week’s Results (Nov 3 – Nov 7)

Deucrictibant — $PHVS ( ▼ 0.96% )
Event: Dual Phase 3 Readouts (ACAAI)
Outcome: ✅ Positive
Our PoA: 70% PoA Accuracy: Hit

Atacicept — $VERA ( ▼ 4.08% )
Event: ORIGIN-3 Phase 3 Plenary (ASN Kidney Week)
Outcome: ✅ Positive
Our PoA: 70% PoA Accuracy: Hit

CAN-2409 — $CADL ( ▲ 2.02% )
Event: Late-Stage Oncology Data (SITC)
Outcome: ✅ Positive
Our PoA: 80% PoA Accuracy: Hit

Vafseo vadadustat — $AKBA ( ▲ 1.49% )
Event: INNO2VATE Win-Odds Analysis
Outcome: ✅ Positive
Our PoA: 100% PoA Accuracy: Hit

Denifanstat — $SGMT ( ▼ 2.21% )
Event: Phase 2b MASH Data
Outcome: ❌ Negative
Our PoA: 50% PoA Accuracy: Miss

📈 Our Accuracy This Week: 4 / 5 = 80%

🧾 Week-in-Review Summary
Four of Monday’s five highlighted catalysts resolved by Friday—all positive except Denifanstat’s miss—yielding an 80% accuracy rate. The pattern reinforces recent sector momentum toward validated biology: HAE, IgAN, and oncology each delivered clean wins while metabolic space remains uneven.

💡 Key Takeaways

  • Deucrictibant $PHVS ( ▼ 0.96% ) solidifies oral HAE prophylaxis; cross-read heightens pressure on $BCRX as it pivots to pediatrics.

  • Atacicept $VERA ( ▼ 4.08% ) confirms BAFF/APRIL durability in IgAN and sets a new eGFR slope benchmark for class followers.

  • CAN-2409 $CADL ( ▲ 2.02% ) validates the in-situ vaccine platform and opens oncology combo potential.

  • Denifanstat $SGMT ( ▼ 2.21% ) miss underscores FASN biopsy limitations in the crowded MASH space.

30-DAY OUTLOOK (Nov 10 – Dec 8)

High-signal catalysts and PDUFAs, prioritized by phase and PoA

Top Catalysts

  • Madrigal – Rezdiffra $MDGL ( ▲ 0.14% )
    Data Nov 11 — PoA 90%
    Phase 3 / real-world MASH data at AASLD; definitive metabolic readout.

  • Arrowhead – plozasiran $ARWR ( ▼ 0.93% )
    PDUFA Nov 18 — PoA 85%
    Priority Review RNAi for familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS).

  • Ascendis – TransCon CNP $ASND ( ▼ 0.77% )
    PDUFA Nov 30 — PoA 80%
    Pediatric growth-plate modulator; clean safety, Priority Review.

  • Kura – ziftomenib $KURA ( ▼ 2.95% )
    PDUFA Nov 30 — PoA 80%
    First menin inhibitor for R/R AML; potential class opener.

  • Sanofi – amlitelimab $SNY ( ▲ 0.34% )
    Data Nov 12 — PoA 60%
    Phase 3 readout expected; IL-13/OX40L antibody in atopic dermatitis vs dupilumab.

  • Cogent – bezuclastinib $COGT ( ▲ 0.68% )
    Data Nov (TBD) — PoA 75%
    KIT inhibitor for mastocytosis and GIST; hepatic safety in focus.

  • Novartis – Lu-PSMA-617 $NVS ( ▼ 0.17% )
    Data Nov 14 — PoA 40%
    Radioligand therapy expansion in mCRPC (PSMAfore).

  • Sanofi – tolebrutinib $SNY ( ▲ 0.34% )
    Data Nov 14 — PoA 60%
    Brain-penetrant BTK inhibitor for PPMS; key for MS differentiation.

Additional Catalysts (Nov 10 – Dec 8)

  • Imunon – IMNN-001 $IMNN ( ▲ 1.01% )  Nov 10 | PoA 65% DNA-mediated IL-12 immunotherapy in ovarian cancer.

  • MBX Biosciences – canvuparatide $MBX ( ▲ 3.36% )  Nov 10 | PoA 55% Oral PTH analog for hypoparathyroidism.

  • Belapectin $GALT ( ▼ 6.81% )  Nov 10 | PoA 25% Galectin-3 blocker in MASH cirrhosis.

  • Atea – bemnifosbuvir / ruzazvir $AVIR ( ▲ 0.62% )  Nov 10 | PoA 35% Dual antiviral combo in chronic HCV; small-cap speculative setup.

  • Altimmune – pemvidutide $ALT ( ▲ 4.32% )  Nov 11 | PoA 32% GLP-1 / glucagon dual agonist readout.

  • Immutep – eftilagimod alpha $IMMP ( ▲ 2.42% )  Nov 12 | PoA 30% Phase 2 STS data.

  • Kamada – Inhaled AAT $KMDA ( ▲ 0.6% )  Nov 12 | PoA 20% Alpha-1 deficiency Phase 3.

  • RenovoRx – RenovoCath $RNXT ( ▼ 0.45% )  Nov 13 | PoA 60% LAPC drug-device platform.

  • Novartis – Lu-PSMA-617 $NVS ( ▼ 0.17% )  Nov 14 | PoA 40% Radioligand expansion.

  • Sanofi – tolebrutinib $SNY ( ▲ 0.34% )  Nov 14 | PoA 60% Progressive MS data.

  • Arrowhead – plozasiran $ARWR ( ▼ 0.93% )  Nov 18 | PoA 85% PDUFA event.

  • AstraZeneca – nirsevimab $AZN ( ▲ 0.97% )  Nov 24 | PoA 60% Respiratory syncytial virus follow-up data.

  • Cogent – bezuclastinib $COGT ( ▲ 0.68% )  Nov (TBD) | PoA 75% KIT inhibitor readout.

  • Skye Bioscience – nimacimab $SKYE ( ▲ 0.66% )  Nov (TBD) | PoA 15% Obesity antibody data.

  • Axogen – Avance Nerve Graft $AXGN ( ▼ 1.75% )  Dec 5 | PoA 72% PDUFA for nerve-repair graft.

  • Agios – PYRUKYND $AGIO ( ▲ 0.89% )  Dec 7 | PoA 80% Thalassemia label expansion PDUFA.

  • AstraZeneca – AZD6234 $AZN ( ▲ 0.97% )  Dec 8 | PoA 40% Phase 2 obesity program readout.

Removed as Binary Catalysts

Etripamil $MIST ( ▼ 0.58% ) — PDUFA Dec 13 (shifted from Nov); CRL resubmission for nasal calcium-channel blocker.

WEEK-BY-WEEK CALENDAR (Nov 10 – Dec 8)

Quick Themes

  • MASH Monday (Nov 10–11): Metabolic and liver programs dominate the early window — IMUNON, MBX, Belapectin, and Altimmune all crowding the space just ahead of Rezdiffra’s pivotal data. Expect volatility across MASH names as $MDGL ( ▲ 0.14% ) resets the benchmark.

  • Mid-Month Immunology Pivot: Sanofi’s dual shots — amlitelimab and tolebrutinib — steer the spotlight toward autoimmune and neuro indications, with radioligand therapy Lu-PSMA-617 offering contrast from oncology.

  • PDUFA Cluster at Month-End: Plozasiran (Nov 18) kicks off a high-confidence run into the TransCon CNP and Ziftomenib approvals (Nov 30), closing with Axogen and Agios in early December — four straight binary decisions within three weeks.

  • Market Mood: Capital is gravitating toward validated biology and priority-review certainty; speculative programs in obesity and metabolic disease remain price-sensitive until the next major data lift.

Coming Monday

Thesis cards for:

  • Rezdiffra $MDGL ( ▲ 0.14% ) — pivotal MASH data at AASLD, defining the metabolic trade for 2026.

  • IMNN-001 $IMNN ( ▲ 1.01% ) — DNA-IL-12 immunotherapy readout in ovarian cancer; potential next-gen immuno-oncology play.

  • Amlitelimab $SNY ( ▲ 0.34% ) — late-stage atopic dermatitis results shaping the post-dupilumab landscape.

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